Pre-tourney Rankings
Missouri Valley
2015-16


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
24 Wichita St. 40.6%   23 - 8 16 - 2 23 - 8 16 - 2 +14.5      +3.9 82 +10.6 2 67.1 251 +9.7 57 +13.0 1
78 Evansville 0.0%   24 - 9 12 - 6 24 - 9 12 - 6 +7.0      +2.4 109 +4.6 59 71.1 147 +7.0 86 +5.4 3
80 Northern Iowa 100.0%   11   21 - 12 11 - 7 21 - 12 11 - 7 +7.0      +2.6 105 +4.4 62 58.9 346 +7.1 82 +3.7 5
121 Illinois St. 0.0%   17 - 14 12 - 6 17 - 14 12 - 6 +3.0      -0.6 185 +3.5 83 68.5 216 +3.0 124 +6.1 2
135 Southern Illinois 0.0%   22 - 10 11 - 7 22 - 10 11 - 7 +2.0      +1.6 130 +0.4 166 72.8 103 +4.3 110 +4.4 4
165 Indiana St. 0.0%   14 - 17 8 - 10 14 - 17 8 - 10 -0.4      -4.2 285 +3.8 78 75.5 64 +0.3 163 -0.2 7
175 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   14 - 17 7 - 11 14 - 17 7 - 11 -0.8      -2.8 239 +2.1 116 63.6 325 -1.3 183 -1.9 8
221 Missouri St. 0.0%   12 - 19 8 - 10 12 - 19 8 - 10 -3.5      -3.6 265 0.0 179 72.3 121 -1.5 186 +0.2 6
254 Drake 0.0%   6 - 24 2 - 16 6 - 24 2 - 16 -5.5      -0.1 176 -5.4 308 64.7 300 -9.5 298 -12.1 10
314 Bradley 0.0%   4 - 27 3 - 15 4 - 27 3 - 15 -10.3      -11.7 349 +1.4 134 67.0 256 -10.3 310 -8.1 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Wichita St. 1.0 100.0
Evansville 2.0 100.0
Northern Iowa 4.0 100.0
Illinois St. 2.0 100.0
Southern Illinois 4.0 100.0
Indiana St. 6.0 100.0
Loyola Chicago 8.0 100.0
Missouri St. 6.0 100.0
Drake 10.0 100.0
Bradley 9.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Wichita St. 16 - 2 100.0
Evansville 12 - 6 100.0
Northern Iowa 11 - 7 100.0
Illinois St. 12 - 6 100.0
Southern Illinois 11 - 7 100.0
Indiana St. 8 - 10 100.0
Loyola Chicago 7 - 11 100.0
Missouri St. 8 - 10 100.0
Drake 2 - 16 100.0
Bradley 3 - 15 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wichita St. 100.0% 100.0
Evansville
Northern Iowa
Illinois St.
Southern Illinois
Indiana St.
Loyola Chicago
Missouri St.
Drake
Bradley


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wichita St. 40.6% 0.0% 40.6% 0.0 0.3 1.4 7.0 29.8 2.1 59.4 40.6%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Northern Iowa 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 11   0.3 35.4 62.1 2.2
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wichita St. 40.6% 29.5% 30.8% 16.4% 7.3% 3.3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Evansville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 21.5% 5.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Indiana St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drake 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.4 59.4 40.6
1st Round 100.0% 1.3 69.2 30.8
2nd Round 34.6% 0.4 65.4 31.3 3.3
Sweet Sixteen 12.1% 0.1 87.9 11.8 0.4
Elite Eight 4.1% 0.0 95.9 4.1 0.0
Final Four 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Final Game 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2